Friday, August 19, 2016

Weekend Closing Post: Saltwater

I am closing up shop early this week, but not to get to the weekend though. I have to take care of my wife who is recovering from surgery.

Never fear! I am leaving you with a piece of music which should be branded as "modern classical", although it is currently labeled as "trance". It is Chicane's Saltwater,  which features the operatic vocals of Irish singer Máire Brennan (on Spotify, she is shown as Moya Brennan).

Saltwater was released in 1999, and charted across Europe and Australia, but sadly didn't receive any airplay in the U.S. It was based on Clannad's Theme from Harry's Game:



While Clannad's vocals are equal, Chicane's music is far superior. Chicane takes Clannad's funeral dirge and turns it into a beautiful dance tune that feels alive.



If you have Spotify, I recommend listening to Saltwater there:



On that salty note, enjoy your weekend! I will be back Monday with more stuff.

Weekend Reading List

Heading into the weekend, here are a few articles for you to enjoy:

1. City Journal: The Left Doth Protest Too Much.
2. The Libertarian Republic: America’s Institutionalized Racism: A Product of Government.
3. Washington Post: This Republican mayor has an incredibly simple idea to help the homeless. And it seems to be working.


Is the ‘lesser of two evils’ an ethical choice for voters?

The title above is also the title of a fascinating editorial by Travis N. Rieder over at The Conversation

The question it asks and attempts to answer:
Every election cycle, there are citizens who don’t like either of the candidates nominated by the two major political parties. 
And so, a familiar debate begins: Is a vote for a third party a principled stand – or wasteful naiveté?
Here is how the question is more personally framed:
Pretend for a moment that you are a swing-state voter who agrees with the following four statements.
  1. A Donald Trump presidency would be a disaster.
  2. A Hillary Clinton presidency would be better.
  3. A third-party candidate would be better still.
  4. Neither third-party candidate has a serious chance of becoming president. 
The problem here is in the framing.

First, will a Trump presidency be a "disaster"? And how big of a "disaster"? While I agree it will be, certainly the question remains as to what kind of a disaster it will be: Are we talking Hitler, or just Obama?

Second, while we might assume Hillary will be better, how much better? Will she be equal to her husband? Or will she be more like Nixon? Even if she is as good as her husband, we already know she has no ethics, so we can expect at least 4 years of having a criminal in the White House.

Finally, regarding a third party's chances, in 1860, the Republicans were a third party that had never won the presidency. Abraham Lincoln changed that.

However, some people may frame the issue as Rieder describes. But then he comes up with this most morally objectionable idea:
...Philosophers have long argued that, while the consequences of one’s actions are morally relevant, they rarely or never amount to a requirement to act in a way inconsistent with one’s firmly held commitments. A British philosopher named Bernard Williams famously argued that if we were forced to abandon our ideals every time the world conspired to make following through with them suboptimal, this would rob us of our integrity. This is a very compelling idea.

Williams seems right that we are not always obligated to violate our own principles or commitments in order to promote the greater good. But surely this idea has limits.

For, as critics of Williams have often said: When the consequences of one’s action or inaction get bad enough, following through for the sake of keeping one’s hands clean starts to seem self-indulgent. Indeed, even Williams admitted that you may sometimes be required to violate your principles for the greater good.

One take-home lesson of Williams’ view is that focusing on our “integrity” is the most justifiable when the action that we are being asked to take deeply violates our most central life commitments, and the cost of not acting is relatively low.
The problem here is that Rieder is viewing this through a short-term ethical lens. When we as a collective vote for a "bad" presidential candidate, what is the takeaway for the political party? They read it as, "We must have selected the best presidential candidate, because we won!" Remember, the purpose of a political party is to win elections. Voting for their candidate is like ringing Pavlov's bell. You can expect much political salivating when you do that.

Naturally, when a political party has been elected, what do they do in the next election? Find another comparable candidate. Consider the Democrats: In 2008, they selected a minority candidate, and they won! He got re-elected in 2012, so he must be ok, right? So they get to 2016, and select another minority candidate. If it ain't broke, don't fix it! (well, except to "fix" it in the unethical sense, but that's another discussion)

In addition, "self-indulgence" is a better description of a voter's motive who selects a candidate based on who has a better chance to win. It is more self-indulgent to vote for whoever everyone else is voting, since you can then gain acceptance with the largest number of people you know. By making the popular choice, you assume the collective is correct, without ever having to make your own ethical decision. This could also be referred to as the "Auschwitz guard's choice".

As Rieder says:
One of the things that Green Party supporters say is that you aren’t supposed to vote for the lesser of two evils – after all, the lesser of two evils is still evil. Rather, you’re supposed to vote for the best candidate. 
One way to think about the third-party vote is that it is a form of conscientious objection. Such a vote, like abstaining from voting, allows the voter to avoid acting in a way that she thinks is wrong or distasteful. We can understand this person’s vote for a third party as a commitment not to let the badness of the world force her into violating her principles.
What is the point of having a principle if you never actually follow it? Principles are not merely "short term guidelines". A solid principle will serve you better in the long term too. The "lesser of two evils" is only a valid option when there are no third choices. Fortunately, there are third choices in this ethical dilemma.

American Liars: Today's news for August 19, 2016

Today's news is the story of three American liars. Let's start at the top:

New York Post:
The State Department admitted Thursday that the United States handed over $400 million in cash to Iran only after Tehran released four American hostages — two weeks after President Obama insisted the payment was not a “ransom.”
State Department spokesman John Kirby was asked at a press briefing: “In basic English, you’re saying you wouldn’t give them $400 million in cash until the prisoners were released, correct?”

“That’s correct,” he replied.

In an Aug. 4 press conference, Obama said the opposite.

“We do not pay ransom. We didn’t here, and we won’t in the future,” the president told reporters, speaking of the January payment and hostage release.

Families “know we have a policy that we don’t pay ransom. And the notion that we would somehow start now, in this high-profile way, and announce it to the world, even as we’re looking in the faces of other hostage families whose loved ones are being held hostage, and saying to them we don’t pay ransom, defies logic,” Obama added at the time.
Is there anything about which Obama won't lie? He is literally the living breathing old joke about politicians: You can tell he is lying if his lips are moving.

Unfortunately, he has set a bad example for American athletes:

CNN:

We finally have the true story of what happened with U.S. Olympic swimmer Ryan Lochte:
The statement says that the incident, as the [United States Olympic Committee understands] it, happened at a gas station.

The four stopped to use a restroom where one of them committed an act of vandalism. 
"An argument ensued between the athletes and two armed gas station security staff, who displayed their weapons, ordered the athletes from their vehicle and demanded the athletes provide a monetary payment," the statement said. "Once the security officials received money from the athletes, the athletes were allowed to leave."
The whole "act of vandalism" wasn't important enough to include in your story, Lochte?

Finally, no story about liars would be complete without Donald Trump:

Politico:
Three and a half months after sealing the Republican nomination, Donald Trump pivoted to contest the general election on Thursday night, expressing regret for his past failures to “choose the right words” and delivering one of the most comprehensive, on-message rationales for his candidacy to date. 
Speaking from prepared remarks on the heels of another staffing shakeup, Trump positioned himself as the champion of voiceless Americans against a corrupt and incompetent elite and the leader of an inclusive movement who repeatedly condemned “bigotry.”
...Early in his remarks, the New York businessman nodded at the months he has squandered, acknowledging that his own mouth had hindered his candidacy. “Sometimes in the heat of debate and speaking on a multitude of issues you don’t choose the right words or you say the wrong thing. I have done that,” Trump said to laughter and cheers from his supporters.

“And believe it or not I regret it. And I do regret it, particularly where it may have caused personal pain. Too much is at stake is for us to be consumed by these issues, but one thing I can promise you is this. I will always tell you the truth,” said Trump, who did not specify which words he regrets saying.
When I was a child, I got in trouble with my mother frequently. But afterwards, I would go up to my mother and say, "I'm sorry."

She would reply, "For what?" If my answer didn't match what she thought my transgressions were, there would be continued shouting from her. Believe me, nobody wanted my mother shouting at them. My 5'2" mother could put Pavarotti to shame with her decibel levels.

The lesson: You never get away with a blanket apology. You better come prepared to list your crimes in full detail. An apology is like a confession: There can be no forgiveness for an unnamed sin.

In the case of Trump, his apology was insincere at best. More likely, someone put him up to it, and he lied his way through it.

Thursday, August 18, 2016

Warren Buffett was wrong

"The 19th century belonged to England, the 20th century belonged to the U.S., and the 21st century belongs to China. Invest accordingly."--Warren Buffett
There is only one way China gets the 21st century, and that is if they master the art of building robots. Consider this David Ignatius editorial, "The Brave New World of Robots and Lost Jobs":
A look at the numbers suggests that America is having the wrong debate this year. Economic security won't come from renegotiating trade deals, as Donald Trump claimed in a speech in Detroit Monday, or rebuilding infrastructure, as Hillary Clinton argued in Warren, Michigan, on Thursday. These are palliatives.

The deeper problem facing America is how to provide meaningful work and good wages for the tens of millions of truck drivers, accountants, factory workers and office clerks whose jobs will disappear in coming years because of robots, driverless vehicles and "machine learning" systems.

The political debate needs to engage the taboo topic of guaranteeing economic security to families -- through a universal basic income, or a greatly expanded earned-income tax credit, or a 1930s-style plan for public-works employment. Ranting about bad trade deals won't begin to address the problem.   
The "automation bomb" could destroy 45 percent of the work activities currently performed in the United States, representing about $2 trillion in annual wages, according to a study last year by the consulting firm McKinsey & Co. We've only seen the beginning of this change, they warned. Currently, only 5 percent of occupations can be entirely automated, but 60 percent of occupations could soon see machines doing 30 percent or more of the work. 
We already saw something similar happen in the 20th century. Remember when time-saving home appliances were invented and sold, thereby saving women lots of work hours in the home? This arguably led to more women entering the workplace since they didn't have to spend as much time maintaining the home. In turn, this effectively doubled the work force, and halved the cost of labor for businesses. This has been one factor in the static wages we have seen for decades.

Don't expect robots to consume all the jobs overnight, but don't be surprised if most or all of the Millennial Generation loses their jobs to robots and other automation before they get a chance to retire. Basically, the political arguments we are having today will become moot in a few decades, and maybe sooner.

As for China, who needs cheap human labor when a robot does the job for one reasonable initial cost plus routine maintenance? By mid-century, China will only be an international political consideration, and maybe not even that. Will nationalism survive the beginning of the age of robotics?

Political criminals

Of all the criminal acts by government bureaucrats, nothing is more Nixonian than the IRS scandal under the Obama administration. I call it Nixonian because the illegal activity was performed independently by government bureaucrats within the IRS, but the Obama administration happily covered it up since it worked to their benefit.

If you are still in doubt, consider this news story from the Daily Signal, "Justice Department Knew of IRS Scandal 2 Years Before Congress but Did Nothing":
Almost 300 pages of documents released [last] Thursday and obtained by Judicial Watch through the Freedom of Information Act confirm that the IRS subjected conservative groups to increased scrutiny beginning in 2011. 
Even though the FBI uncovered the scandal in 2011, the documents show, the Department of Justice chose not to act. 
In other words, President Obama was happy to let this continue into the 2012 election, even though it was clearly illegal. The Media happily gave Obama a pass on it, even though they (appropriately) went after Republican President Nixon for doing the same thing.

This is why the Democratic Party is a bunch of criminals. There is no journalistic oversight of them, so the American people barely notice when the Democrats do anything illegal, and forget unethical since that may not even be noticed by our Media stewards. Even if you agree with the Democratic Party's political views, allowing any political party to be above the law is the path to dictatorship.

Blame it on Rio: Today's news for August 18, 2016

CNN:

I am having a hard time mustering outrage or sympathy in this story:
American swimmers Jack Conger and Gunnar Bentzhave have been ordered to stay in Brazil until they give police a statement about about an incident in which they say they and two other swimmers were robbed, according to their attorney.

Conger and Bentz were removed from their flight from Rio de Janeiro to the United States Wednesday night by Brazilian authorities, US Olympic Committee spokesman Patrick Sandusky told CNN Sports contributor Christine Brennan.

The swimmers have since been released, according to the USOC, with the understanding that they will continue discussing the incident on Thursday.

The athletes -- Ryan Lochte, James Feignen, Conger and Bentz -- reported being robbed at gunpoint early Sunday in a taxi bound for the Olympic Village by individuals posing as armed police officers, the US Olympic Committee said Sunday. 
...Judge Keyla Blanc De Cnop said the athletes' jocular behavior upon arrival at the Olympic Village -- combined with the inconsistencies in their statements -- led police to question the veracity of their claim.

Judge Blanc De Cnop noted that Lochte had said a single robber approached the athletes and demanded all their money (400 real, or $124), while Feigen's statement said a number of robbers targeted the athletes but only one was armed.
On top of that, there are also reports of pictures of the athletes with their allegedly stolen goods at the airport as they were trying to leave Rio.

The overall story looks to me like a bunch of young guys who went out partying one night in Rio, and then tried to cover up their activities, possibly to their families. Unfortunately, they made the Rio police look bad in the process. Sorry guys, but filing false police complaints is a crime in most places, even the U.S. and Brazil. As the old saying goes, "Don't do the crime if you can't do the time."

Anyway, this is the lede story on most news websites. However, the following should have been the lede:

CNN:
Sylville Smith and the Milwaukee police officer who fatally shot him had crossed paths before a lethal encounter that led to days of unrest, according to Smith's relatives and friends. 
A city long marred by racial strife erupted in violence over the weekend after the police officer shot the 23-year-old in the arm and chest when Smith failed to put down his handgun, city officials said. 
A pair of officers had stopped Smith and another man in a car Saturday afternoon when the men bolted on foot. Smith was black, as is the unidentified 24-year-old officer who shot him. 
Smith's sister, Sherelle, said her brother and the officer attended the same school at one time. 
"The officer knew him personally from high school and he still shot him," Sherelle Smith told CNN on Wednesday. "He didn't like my brother. The officer had a career, but my brother was more popular. He used to harass Sylville."
Coming from the sister of the victim, that last part is arguably biased speculation. However, it does present this story in a unique way, by taking what was a "cop shoots black man story" and makes it more of a "black on black crime story". Maybe this story is really both? While this is all speculation, it is still worthy of consideration.

Regardless, this is a fascinating element to a major news story that is being overlooked even by the news source that is reporting it. 

This isn't the first time CNN has promoted fluff news over real news. Seriously, whoever is editing CNN's website should be fired. This is journalistic malpractice. The swimmer story is only a lede story on a very slow news day.