Sun Tzu and Afghanistan

(hat tip to Alchetron for the pic)

What would the most famed military strategist of all time have to say about America's military strategy in Afghanistan? A lot, and not much of it good. Following are his quotes, from The Art of War (followed by my comments).

"What is essential in war is victory, not prolonged operations...There is no instance of a nation benefiting from prolonged warfare."

Even in ancient times, 16 years would be considered "prolonged operations".

"Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win."

While there are elements of military strategy to this, there is also a political calculation here. A leader doesn't send his soldiers off to war unless he is certain they can win. Listening to Trump's Afghanistan speech, there are several quotes that stand out:

As we send our bravest to defeat our enemies overseas -- and we will always win... 

This is the definition of hubris.

Additionally, Trump said:

First, our nation must seek an honorable and enduring outcome worthy of the tremendous sacrifices that have been made, especially the sacrifices of lives. The men and women who serve our nation in combat deserve a plan for victory. 

In other words, we need to win because we have earned it. Sadly, fate doesn't care whether you "deserve it" or not. As Sun Tzu might say, you go to war to win, and not because you are "entitled". He would have laughed at the very thought.

Even worse, Trump gave the very reason why Afghanistan is a fool's war:

Third and finally, I concluded that the security threats we face in Afghanistan and the broader region are immense. Today, 20 U.S.-designated foreign terrorist organizations are active in Afghanistan and Pakistan -- the highest concentration in any region anywhere in the world.

For its part, Pakistan often gives safe haven to agents of chaos, violence, and terror. The threat is worse because Pakistan and India are two nuclear-armed states whose tense relations threaten to spiral into conflict. And that could happen.

In other words, even if we "win" in Afghanistan, the terrorists will just move next door to Pakistan. Based on this, the obvious solution is to attack both countries. Attacking a nuclear-armed Pakistan is suicide. Hence, we cannot attack it, and therefore we cannot ever completely defeat the terrorists.

Finally, Sun Tzu had this piece of advice which is almost tailor-made for President Trump and the United States:

"Move not unless you see an advantage; use not your troops unless there is something to be gained; fight not unless the position is critical. No ruler should put troops into the field merely to gratify his own spleen; no general should fight a battle simply out of pique. If it is to your advantage, make a forward move; if not, stay where you are. Anger may in time change to gladness; vexation may be succeeded by content. But a kingdom that has once been destroyed can never come again into being; nor can the dead ever be brought back to life. Hence the enlightened ruler is heedful, and the good general full of caution. This is the way to keep a country at peace and an army intact."