Friday, February 10, 2017

Alternatives to universal basic income

The other day, I got into a friendly disagreement on Twitter with some people over the issue of the universal basic income, which I discussed fully in "The new welfare state".

My point is basically that, in an economy where humans no longer have to work (thanks to robots and artificial intelligence), a universal basic income (UBI) is one possible solution. While I am sure it isn't the only one, another solution hasn't presented itself.

The UBI's detractors pointed out how bad it was. While I don't disagree with them, they offered no solutions. But like I said in my post:
Now for the downside: Inflation. With created money going directly from the government to the economy (why save money if you will just get more from the government?), we will quickly get Zimbabwe-style inflation.
The current monetary framework doesn't work for UBI. Regardless of what you decide the UBI should be, inflation will always outpace your number. It is a Catch-22. It is Keynesian inflation on steroids.

Some factors to consider in this new economy:

1. We are discussing a world where production and economic growth are less relevant, because everything we need or want can be produced by robots and AI. Ergo, currency inflation is also less relevant.
2. Consumer demand is a unique factor here. Under the current economy, consumer demand is nearly unlimited, because of so many different ways a consumer can need "stuff". When you are involved in productive employment, there are many ways you can ease your burden or even make it more enjoyable. However, in a world where you can spend all day in whatever pursuit you wish, the amount of time to spend on "new stuff" is limited. To do new activities, it will cut into the time you have for old activities. Hence, production can be transitioned fluidly from old stuff to new stuff. Your only need for investment will be transitioning the robots/AI.
3. One possible alternative to UBI alone might lie in reducing the costs of goods and services, in addition to a UBI. If we can create a more efficient economy, to the point where goods and services have little expense,then a UBI doesn't have to be so prohibitively large. Imagine a world where $65/week could cover all your living expenses, plus leave you a little extra money to blow on other goods and services? In that scenario, $1 trillion covers a UBI for all Americans each year. That creates a more efficient government budget than we have now. In other words, one massive amount of deflation could actually work in our favor.

There will be other factors and ideas, but this is just intended as a launching point in the conversation.

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