Trump's Economic Plan

Back in 2012, I thought Republican Mitt Romney's economic plan carried one huge flaw: He was going to challenge China's pegging of their currency to the dollar. Basically, if China didn't stop it, he would start a trade war with them. Can you say "dangerously stupid"?

Now we have Donald Trump, and "dangerously stupid" only begins to describe his economic plan. I hope you are sitting down for this...

(Quotes below are from the CNNMoney article, Donald Trump's big economic plan: Fix U.S. trade.)

1. Dr. Trump finds cause of economic problems: Free Trade.

"The American worker is being crushed" by trade, Trump says. As proof, he cites research from the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute that found America has lost 900,000 jobs to Mexico since the North American Free Trade Agreement was signed in late 1993. 

The job losses are the subject of a huge debate. Other research by the right-leaning U.S. Chamber of Commerce says 5 million U.S. jobs have been created because of NAFTA. 

Regardless, this discussion ignores the impact of technology and innovation on traditional middle class jobs.

Before you dismiss the impact of technology, I had a thought about information technology recently: When I used to create reports, the work I did would have taken an entire building of people to compile a hundred years ago. Every year, technology continues to eliminate more jobs, via computers and robots. Don't be surprised if 20 years from now, ALL the jobs are done by computers and robots. What people will do hasn't been decided.

2. Dr. Trump's plan: Economic Chaos! 

Trump solution is to renegotiate trade agreements (the U.S. currently has 20 free-trade deals in place) and put taxes (known as tariffs) on Chinese and Mexican imports. 

The idea is to make Chinese and Mexican goods more expensive so companies will start manufacturing in the U.S. again. 

The problem is China and Mexico aren't likely to send Trump a thank you note. They would probably retaliate by putting taxes on U.S. goods coming into their countries. It could cause a global trade war.

Exhibit A in "What the heck are you thinking, Donald?": The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930. From Wikipedia:

Threats of retaliation began long before the bill was enacted into law in June 1930. As it passed the House of Representatives in May 1929, boycotts broke out and foreign governments moved to increase rates against American products, even though rates could be increased or decreased by the Senate or by the conference committee. By September 1929, Hoover's administration had received protest notes from 23 trading partners, but threats of retaliatory actions were ignored.

It is no coincidence the 1929 stock market crash began in October, just a month after the U.S. received those protest notes.

And Donald wants us to relive that? While I accused Romney of dangerous stupidity, I have to call Trump "epically stupid".

It's (almost) final: Clinton versus Trump

Yesterday's primaries didn't cement a victory in either political party, but they certainly made clear front runners who will be hard to beat the rest of the way.

On the Democratic side, it would take overwhelming victories by Bernie Sanders for him to even have a chance at beating Hillary Clinton. Even with California and New York still to come, I just don't see it happening for Sanders. Without superdelegates, Clinton is leading with 1,074 delegates to Sanders' 762. With superdelegates, she nearly doubles his count: 1,561-800.

On the Republican side, Trump got every state except Ohio, where also-ran John Kasich won his winner-take-all home state. Now, of Kasich's 138 delegates, almost half are from Ohio. On the other hand, Kasich did better than Marco Rubio, who lost his home state Florida to Trump.

Marco at least had the brains to read the writing on the wall. From RealClearPolitics:

Florida Sen. Marco Rubio suspends his presidential [campaign] at a speech in Miami following his loss to Donald Trump. 

"Most of all, I know first hand that ours is a special nation," Rubio said. "That's how I've decided that I too can run for president of the U.S.A.... From a political standpoint, the easiest thing to do in a campaign would be to jump on all those anxieties... to make people angrier, more frustrated. But I chose a different route and I am proud of it." 

"That would have been the easiest way to win, but it is not good for America," he continued. "The politics of resentment against other people will not just leave us a fractured party, it will leave us a fractured country." 

"Where we find ourselves at this point is not surprising, the warning signs were clear for close to a decade," Rubio said. "2010 the Tea Party wave carried me and others into office because not enough was happening, and that Tea Party gave Republicans a majority in the House but nothing changed. In 2014, that wave gave Republicans a majority the Senate and still nothing changed." 

"I blame some of that on the conservative movement. A movement that is supposed to be about our ideas. But I blame most of it on our political establishment, a political establishment that for far too long has looked down at conservatives as simple minded people... as bomb throwers." 

"A political establishment that has for far too long taken conservatives' votes for granted, and that has grown to confuse cronyism for capitalism and big business for free enterprise. I endeavored to bridge this divide... America needs a vibrant conservative movement, but one that is built on principles and ideas, not on anger, not on preying on peoples' frustrations..."

I would argue this is older than a decade, going back into Bush's presidency. For too long, Republicans have been a party of fiscal irresponsibility, spending like a teenager with dad's credit card. Now dad has the bill, and he is not the least bit happy. Think of Donald Trump as "dad getting his belt".

To be honest, Rubio caught the wave, but he never understood it. Of course, I don't think the average Trump voter understands it either. They just see the mess of our economy, and illegal Mexicans standing on the corner sucking up all the jobs. Unfortunately, the Trumpsters are putting 2 and 2 together and coming up with 22.

The TRUTH is that the illegal Mexicans are a symptom, not the disease. The true problem is crony capitalism which has corrupted the American government to it's core. When Rubio tried to get his amnesty bill through Congress, he was doing Wall Street's bidding. They want cheap labor, and they expect Washington to provide it. That was why the GOP establishment turned to Rubio when Jeb Bush failed. He was door #2.

So where will the GOP establishment turn next? They have four options: Embrace Trump, embrace a third party candidate, embrace Hillary (Wall Street would like that), or do nothing. My money is on them doing nothing. The GOP establishment would never endorse Hillary, ever. There is too much bad blood there. If the establishment ran a third party candidate, it would be obvious, and would split up the Republican Party. Finally, the GOP establishment would never support Trump (at least not privately, and any public support would be tepid), because they are too closely related to the Democrats in their views.

This is it folks: Hillary versus The Donald. These are the two best candidates this country has to offer.

God help us all.

It's the economy, stupid!

I was watching this CNN video, where actor Kevin Spacey compares this election to 1968, specifically comparing Donald Trump to George Wallace. Then I was reminded of the variation on political analyst James Carville's quote:

It's the economy, stupid.

As the Media runs around barking about racism, they are ignoring what Trump is talking about, and why people are listening to him.

As for Spacey's 1968 comparison? The unemployment rate was 3.6%. The current U-6 unemployment rate (which includes part-time workers looking for full-time work) was 10.1% in February. George Wallace's racism was a hideous luxury in 1968. Donald Trump's racism in 2016 is a reaction to loose immigration policies which have been ignored for too long, and are now starting to show an economic effect.

Until the Media wakes up and starts hitting Trump on the economy, he will continue to roll along. The formerly middle class worker who is now poor or unemployed doesn't care about the Media's racism charges. He/she wants a job that pays enough to live, and he/she will vote for Trump because Trump isn't "generic brand politically correct politician". Don't be surprised to see large numbers of poor minorities voting for the allegedly racist Trump because of the economy.

It's the economy, stupid.

So keep throwing racism out there, and ignore the bitter truth: Our country's economic policies under the last two presidents specifically, and going back 100 years, have favored the wealthy and poor over the middle class.

The economic chickens have come home to roost. You better give them something, preferably a job, or hand the country over to Trump.

Hot Mic Alert!

I love when famous people get caught talking on a hot microphone about stuff they would NEVER say in public! Case in point: This Washington Post report of a conversation between Hillary Clinton and Christ Matthews, during an MSNBC interview:

...during a commercial break while taping an MSNBC town hall on Monday, Clinton and host Chris Matthews chatted it up about the state of the race. 

Clinton scolded the media for its constant coverage of the GOP front-runner Donald Trump, speculated about New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie's political future and  his motivations for endorsing Donald Trump.

"You guys can’t stop covering him," Clinton said told Matthews. "He is a dangerous presence." 

In the Media's defense, Trump is far more interesting than anyone else running. The most interesting thing from Hillary so far has been a recurring cough. With Trump, you get racism, sexism, assassination attempts, incestuous comments, and whole bunches of exciting news, usually on a daily basis. Trump spoon-feeds intellectual pablum to the Media, while Hillary makes them work for every crumb of controversy. Beer Hall Putsch versus "grass growing". I think Hillary may be smoking her own growing grass...(although I am sure she doesn't inhale!)

Matthews followed up by acknowledging that his network has "progressive leanings, obviously."

Thank you, Captain Obvious...

"But nobody can tell what people want to watch," he said.  

"People must think they want to watch him," Clinton replied. 

"They laugh at him," said Matthews.

Yes, all those people who show up at his rallies and cheer him on, are only there to laugh at him. A comedian would be lucky to pull the audiences Trump gets:

1. Jacksonville, FL

 (hat tip to The Florida Times-Union for the pic)

2. Phoenix, AZ

(hat tip to the Susan Smith Show for the pic)

3. Dallas TX

(hat tip to Twitchy for the pic)

4. Rochester, NH

(hat tip to ITV.com for the pic)

I can go on, but you get the point. Those crowds aren't there to "laugh" at Trump. 

The truth is only the progressive elites like Chris Matthews "laugh" at Trump. They haven't realized they are the joke, and Trump is laughing all the way to the polls...

Feel the Bern

Sometimes, politicians make a mistake and say something which reveals how politics really works. Like Bernie Sanders (story from The Hill):

Bernie Sanders on Monday said one of the reasons he decided to run for president as a Democrat instead of as an independent was to attract more media coverage. 

“I just happen to believe that in this moment of history, given the crises that we face, it is too late for establishment politics and establishment economics," Sanders said at an MSNBC town hall. 

“We concluded — and I think it was absolutely the right decision, that … in terms of media coverage — you have to run within the Democratic party,” Sanders said.

One thing I have always suspected was the Media doesn't have a "liberal bias", or even a "progressive bias" to be more accurate. The Media supports the Democratic Party, right or wrong. Now I have confirmation from Bernie Sanders. Thanks Bernie!

Ben Carson's Reasoning

When Ben Carson decided to endorse Donald Trump, I was floored. Fortunately, Jonathan Easley at The Hill managed to get Carson to give him the rationale behind Carson's endorsement.

Here is a point-by-point breakdown of the interview:

1. Trump is lying...

“I needed to know that he could listen to other people, that he could change his opinions, and that some of the more outlandish things that he’s said, that he didn’t really believe those things,” Carson said.

When asked which statements Trump might back away from, Carson demurred.

“I’ll let him talk about that because I don’t think it’s fair for me to relay a private conversation,” he said.

Translation: Trump is saying a lot of crap he doesn't really mean, so Carson is cool with him.

Bring out the bear for this one...

2. Trump and Carson are both outsiders...

...Carson said his path to supporting Trump began in earnest in September at the second Republican presidential debate in Simi Valley, Calif. That debate took place not long after Trump had achieved front-runner status and a short time before Carson would challenge him atop the polls.

There, Carson said, the two men bonded over their shared status as outsiders who had flummoxed the media and party elites. Both also shared a strong distaste for being politically correct. The connection grew stronger as they crossed paths at subsequent debates.

“He and I have talked over for months about the fact that we had a lot of alignment and there would probably continue to be some association,” Carson said.

Having shared interests is a good basis for a friendship, but I have had lots of friends I wouldn't endorse for president. But let's move on...

3. Carson doesn't think Ted Cruz can win the general election...

“I think it would be very difficult to convince the independents and Democrats to come over and support him,” Carson said.

Carson said his decision not to support Cruz had nothing to do with the Texas senator’s campaign circulating a false story about him dropping out of the race before the Iowa caucuses.

Carson is on the mark here. As an independent with libertarian views, I consider Cruz the kind of candidate for whom I would have to hold my nose to vote.

4. Carson thinks Marco Rubio and John Kasich can't win... 

“I didn’t see a pathway for either,” Carson said. “That was the same reason I dropped out, because I didn’t see a pathway to victory for me.”

5. This is a maybe, but... 

As for the possibility of joining the ticket as a vice presidential candidate?

“I leave the door open,” Carson said.

“My primary focus is to make sure we get the kinds of policies in place that are really going to solve our problems and are going to preserve the American dream for the next generation. If serving as vice president is going to make that more likely, then I’m willing to do it.”

If number 5 turns out to be true, we can cross out the first 4.

That said, even if Carson isn't going to be Trump's veep, I wouldn't be surprised to see Carson get a cabinet-level post (Secretary of Health and Human Services maybe?). My money is on Carson getting a job somewhere in the Trump administration.

All that said, this reminds me of the following quote about honesty:

"See they conducted experiments on convicts ... I don't know on what grounds they reason a man in jail is a bigger liar than one out of jail ... The chances are telling the truth is what got him there ... It would be a big aid to humanity, but it will never be, for already the politicians are up in arms against it ... It would wreck the very foundation on which our political government is run ... If you ever injected truth into politics you'd have no politics … Even the ministers are denouncing it now … Humanity is not yet ready for either real truth or real harmony."--Will Rogers

Weekend Review

Jamie Dupree just reported this via Twitter:

From the Buckeye State - Mitt Romney to join Johh Kasich on the stump in Ohio today https://t.co/OhEgOtcFF8

— Jamie Dupree (@jamiedupree) March 14, 2016

What this means is "bye bye Marco Rubio, the GOP establishment just jumped off your bandwagon". Mind you, that doesn't mean Kasich will do any better. It just means Rubio now has one less 800 pound gorilla on his back.

Then again, there is this from Fox News:

Republican presidential candidate Sen. Marco Rubio has dropped to third place just days ahead of a crucial primary in his home state of Florida, according to a CBS News poll released Sunday.

On the bright side, I won't have to talk about Rubio for another 4 years, maybe longer...

In other news, Angela Merkel has learned the dangers of leaving Germany's door open:

German voters turned to the far right in droves [Saturday] in a damning verdict on Angela Merkel’s open door border policy. 

In regional elections she was humiliated by the anti-immigrant AfD – Alternative for Germany – party. 

Formed just three years ago, it has surged in popularity following Mrs Merkel’s decision to roll out the red carpet for more than a million migrants. 

Frauke Petry, who leads the Eurosceptic party, has suggested German border guards should open fire on illegal immigrants.

While I can appreciate Germans aren't fond of walls, I think shooting immigrants might be a bit overboard.

Another story from the LA Times:

What happens when a Democratic lawmaker strays from party leaders on a key piece of Gov. Jerry Brown’s policy agenda? One assemblywoman who held back support for a sweeping climate-change bill last year is starting to find out. 

Assemblywoman Cheryl Brown (D-San Bernardino) was among a group of business-aligned Democrats who objected to a provision in the bill, SB 350, that would have cut California's motor vehicle petroleum use in half by 2030. 

Now Brown, a moderate, is facing what could be a bruising reelection fight against an intraparty challenger from the left, attorney Eloise Gomez Reyes. The race raises a question: What does it mean to be a Democrat in San Bernardino, where concerns over jobs often compete with those about the environment? 

Some early signs indicate Brown could be in trouble. Protesters have shown up at her local events. Some of her supporters have defected, endorsing Reyes early in the fight. 

“Do you ever feel that something is not going quite right?” Brown said in a recent phone interview. “They are after me, and I still don’t know why. I don’t know who ‘they’ are. But I will find out soon.” 

Last week, Brown's suspicions began to crystallize when a dozen students in breathing masks from San Bernardino Valley College threw themselves on the floor of a town hall meeting she hosted.

If you ever want to see how Democrats are like the Mafia, here is a great example.