I was having an email discussion with my friend Sam, as I frequently do, and the question came up: So how will history view the presidency of Barack Obama?
His view is this: Obama was obstructed from the beginning by the Republicans, who displayed hints of racism in their motives. Never mind that obstructionism is standard operating procedure for out-of-power political parties. But as I keep trying to remind him, the Republicans tried the same thing with Bill Clinton, and lost, because Clinton was far too savvy. Clinton assumed the middle ground, leaving Republicans looking silly.
On the other hand, Obama assumed an elitist position nobody except Wall Street wanted. His earliest achievements, approved with bipartisan support, were the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 and the Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act. Both of these were written with Wall Street's input, and protected the "too big to fail" banks with both bailout money and regulations, allowing them to become even bigger before the end of Obama's presidency, even while offering the average American little. "Cash for Clunkers" was a benefit limited to those people who were buying new cars, and only when they traded in gas guzzlers. Unemployment benefits got extended to help Americans out of work. Later on, more people fell off the unemployment rolls, as they either retired (many baby boomers) or quit looking for jobs.
And then Obama made his biggest political mistake: The Affordable Care Act. Sadly, the health insurance industry signed off on their own destruction, thinking that requiring all Americans to have health insurance would enrich themselves. Unfortunately, eliminating their ability to refuse people with pre-existing conditions also leveled the cost between those who could afford it and didn't need it, with the worst health insurance risks of all. Since the inception of Obamacare, health insurance has seen increasing costs alongside increasing deductibles (one of the few positives from Obamacare, this has actually started returning health insurance to what insurance is supposed to do, which is pay for emergencies and not be just a third party payer).
However, the ACA was a mistake because it was passed on a purely partisan vote, thereby allowing both Obama and the Democratic Party to be held accountable for it. In effect, this gave the Republicans the blank check for obstructionism they needed. Bill Clinton recognized this pitfall when he pulled back from his own healthcare plan back in the 90's, and turned out to be one of the more effective presidents of recent times. Obama thought he was politically invincible, and he paid the price for his own arrogance: He lost the 2010 mid-term elections to the GOP, allowing the GOP to take the 2010 Census and redistrict most states in their own favor. The Democrats have paid for this in every election since then.
Even when the Republicans tried to shut down the government over Obamacare, they only took a minor hit in the 2014 mid-term election, still controlling both the House and Senate (which they took control in the 2012 election).
Speaking of the shutdown, how has the federal budget done? Apparently, the shutdown didn't stop the government from overspending. On September 30, 2009 (the end of the last fiscal year which President Bush initiated), the federal debt was at $11.9 trillion. As of September 30, 2016, the debt is at $19.5 trillion, an increase of 64%. Expect that number to go up, as the government hasn't stopped overspending. With the U.S. GDP at $17.95 trillion, that puts our debt-to-GDP ratio at 109%. We are getting close to Greek territory with those numbers.
Ironically, the one supposed great aspect of Obama, his black skin, has turned out to be his worst aspect, because it allowed all criticism of him to inevitably get called "racist" by somebody, thereby leaving the charge of racism as meaningless. This was evident in the 2016 presidential election, as multiple charges of racism were levied at Republican Donald Trump, and subsequently ignored by the American voters (whether Trump is racist or not remains to be seen, although the charges levied at him were questionable at best). Culturally, racism doesn't have the kick it used to have, as Leftists and the MSM have overused the accusation during Obama's presidency. Call it "the boy who cried wolf" effect, which has left us exposed to any real wolves out there.
As for foreign policy, Obama managed to lose respect for America, while maintaining most of Bush's initiatives. We are still at war in Afghanistan. Obama tried to pull us out of Iraq, only to have to return the troops there after the rise of ISIS. Libya and Syria have both been muddled missteps, with Vietnam-like American responses. Obama's treaty with Iran turned out to be an excuse to have a treaty with Iran, and not really doing anything. Obama's foreign policy was like a malaise, with no clear direction. On the bright side, Russian leader Vladimir Putin is stronger than ever! Oh wait, that isn't a bright side.
Obama does deserve credit for one thing: His olive branch to Cuba has been long overdue. America's Cuban boycott became ineffective long ago. This isn't to praise Cuba, just a statement of fact. The Cuban dictatorship isn't more or less strong than it ever was, as the Cuban economy has been a mess for decades. After you have at least a generation that has grown up in an economic mess, you are no longer influencing them with a boycott. On top of that, you can't influence anyone by ignoring them.
As Obama prepares to leave office, we see working Americans making roughly what they were making before as inflation has eroded any economic progress they made. There are more non-working Americans than there were in 2008. Health insurance is steadily becoming unaffordable. Wall Street is stronger than ever, even as fewer Americans work. Manufacturing in America continues to decline, even as more manufacturers continue to offshore their operations. Respect for American power continues to decline in the world, even as Russia becomes a stronger player. Even America's black community is up in arms over the overuse of lethal force by police departments against black men, even as our first black president leaves office with nothing for the black community to show for it, other than presidential tokenism.
Unless you are a Wall Street bank CEO, or an American with a terminal health condition, or a Cuban or Russian dictator, or an Iranian oligarch, there isn't much good that Obama has to show for his presidency. Historically, I would have to rank Obama between Herbert Hoover and Jimmy Carter. If there is a section in the history books for "ineffective presidents", Obama will be discussed at length there.
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