Tuesday, February 16, 2016

2 year backlog in Gulfstreams not as meaningful as it seems

From Bloomberg:

Gulfstream Aerospace Corp. says it’s unable to keep up with demand from the rich. 
Pay $65 million for the G650 or G650ER personal jets, and your wait to board them could be as long as two years, Scott Neal, Gulfstream’s senior vice president of worldwide sales and marketing, said in a Bloomberg TV interview Tuesday at the Singapore Air Show. 
The G650ER "has taken market share at the top end of the market. It’s really created a new market to itself," Neal said. "The next available delivery for a new G650 or G650ER is a little over two years from now."
...Gulfstream delivered about 150 planes last year and is expanding its maintenance support network, he said. 
That's really great, until you consider those 150 planes includes G450, G550, and G280. None of those is a $65 million aircraft. Granted, these are all luxury aircraft, but that isn't what the headline says, now is it?

But you also need to consider another news story. From Reuters:

The 737 MAX, the latest generation of Boeing's best-selling 737 aircraft, is a major cash generator for the company. It had 3,072 firm orders at the end of 2015, more than half of Boeing's 5,795-plane backlog.
The whole point of this is that aerospace manufacturers like to have backlogs. It shows stockholders, "See? We have so much demand we can't keep up with it!" If their backlog dropped to one aircraft, they would cut their staff to one guy building the airplane. He should be finished with it in a few years!

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