Monday, January 2, 2017

Happy New Year: Today's news for January 2nd

It looks like everyone is still hungover from their New Year's partying, because the news is a little light. 

Associated Press:
Republicans' grip on all levers of power stands as a mandate to the GOP-led Congress, which will move swiftly to try to undo eight years of outgoing President Barack Obama's agenda.
That seems like a fairly obvious observation after a winning election. However, because of the narrow victory margins, that mandate comes with a short leash.

Here is what to expect:
Trump is sworn in on Jan. 20, and Republicans in the Senate will spend the first days and weeks of his presidency pushing to confirm his Cabinet picks. Democrats changed the rules and curbed the filibuster in 2013, making it easier for Republicans to move nominations. But even though they won't be able to block Trump's nominees, Democrats have pledged to fight many of them anyway, highlighting what they say is the hypocrisy of Trump's populist message and his wealthy, corporate-favoring nominees for several posts. 
Unless a president selects Charles Manson to be Secretary of the Interior, any president should get whomever they want for their cabinet. If the Democrats want to protest, they should pick another battle instead of wasting air on cabinet picks.
The Senate plans to begin repealing Obama's health care law on Tuesday, Congress' very first day, with consideration of a procedural measure that will shield the initiative from Democratic filibusters.

Lawmakers will then spend the next few months working on legislation canceling broad swaths of the law. Likely to go are its mandate that people buy health insurance or face IRS fines, and its expansion of Medicaid coverage to more lower-earning Americans. Some elements of the repeal likely wouldn't go into effect for two to four years.

Republicans will then begin the more complicated task of building a new system. The GOP will have to craft new programs for the nation's $3 trillion health care system and make sure insurance markets don't collapse while the transition is under way. 
Be afraid. Be very afraid.

In other areas:

1. Income tax reform/simplification: A good idea, but expect poor execution. Expect a camel with different stripes.
2. New Supreme Court justice to be nominated: This is one of the few areas where I am personally hopeful. Keep your fingers crossed.
3. Medicare reform: At most, expect the Medicare deck to get shuffled, but the cards will stay the same.
4. Social Security reform: This is like the old Mark Twain joke, "Everybody talks about the weather, but nobody does anything about it." Expect Social Security to be left alone until it fails.
5. Reversing Obama's regulations: Either Trump will take care of this, or Congress will. If Congress was smart, they would pull back the Executive Branch's regulation-writing authority. But nobody ever accused Congress of being smart.
6. Infrastructure spending: Trump wants it, Congress is reluctant. However, if Trump can forge a coalition with Democrats and less fiscally conservative Republicans, he might be able to get what he wants.

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