I am glad you asked.@1EMcGon1 Glad you like our tweet. How do you think the economy is going?— a_healthy_distrust (@Is_Fiat_Failing) September 19, 2016
Here is the last employment report, from Bloomberg:
Released On 9/2/2016 8:30:00 AM For Aug, 2016
| Prior | Prior Revised | Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | |
| Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change | 255,000 | 275,000 | 175,000 | 125,000 to 215,000 | 151,000 |
| Unemployment Rate - Level | 4.9 % | 4.8 % | 4.8 % to 4.9 % | 4.9 % | |
| Private Payrolls - M/M change | 217,000 | 225,000 | 179,000 | 100,000 to 195,000 | 126,000 |
| Participation Rate - level | 62.8 % | 62.8 % | |||
| Average Hourly Earnings - M/M change | 0.3 % | 0.2 % | 0.0 % to 0.3 % | 0.1 % | |
| Av Workweek - All Employees | 34.5 hrs | 34.4 hrs | 34.5 hrs | 34.4 hrs to 34.5 hrs | 34.3 hrs |
And here is the report from January:
Released On 1/8/2016 8:30:00 AM For Dec, 2015
| Prior | Prior Revised | Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | |
| Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change | 211,000 | 252,000 | 200,000 | 170,000 to 249,000 | 292,000 |
| Unemployment Rate - Level | 5.0 % | 5.0 % | 4.9 % to 5.0 % | 5.0 % | |
| Private Payrolls - M/M change | 197,000 | 240,000 | 193,000 | 160,000 to 246,000 | 275,000 |
| Participation Rate - level | 62.5 % | 62.6 % | |||
| Average Hourly Earnings - M/M change | 0.2 % | 0.2 % | 0.1 % to 0.3 % | 0.0 % | |
| Av Workweek - All Employees | 34.5 hrs | 34.5 hrs | 34.5 hrs to 34.6 hrs | 34.5 hrs |
That is practically no change, although the participation rate rose a little (although that could be a margin of error increase).
The consumer price index (CPI) has been showing a small increase, although I question the accuracy of this statistic, as it rarely comes close to what I see shopping:
| Released On 9/16/2016 8:30:00 AM For Aug, 2016 | |||||||||||||||
|
The CPI has been so statistically rigged, it is far removed from reality on the street.
Lately, I have been seeing many groceries dropping in price. Even hot dog buns are back to where they were in 2008-2009, which is a 20% drop (falling from $1.25 to about $0.99 for a pack of 8, and I have even seen packs of 16 on sale at our local bread discounter for $1). Gas prices are hovering below $2/gallon, another significant drop. When prices start falling like that, watch out!
As for the stock market, the recent drop took a lot of steam out of it. Here is the S&P 500 weekly chart, from Stockcharts:
Mind you, I wouldn't say "sell". Even if the economy takes a hit, long term holdings should be held, because the long term trend is still up. But I wouldn't be looking to buy here either. At this point, I am sitting on my cash. The stock valuations for stock I would buy just don't look cheap right now.
The only stock I would call a "buy" here is General Motors (GM), which is held by both Warren Buffett and George Soros. It is dirt cheap, with a trailing P/E of 3.9 and a PEG ratio of 0.51, which tells me it should at least double in 5 years.
Overall, the economy looks stalled. It isn't dead, but it also isn't going anywhere fast.
No comments:
Post a Comment