Warren Buffett was wrong

"The 19th century belonged to England, the 20th century belonged to the U.S., and the 21st century belongs to China. Invest accordingly."--Warren Buffett

There is only one way China gets the 21st century, and that is if they master the art of building robots. Consider this David Ignatius editorial, "The Brave New World of Robots and Lost Jobs":

A look at the numbers suggests that America is having the wrong debate this year. Economic security won't come from renegotiating trade deals, as Donald Trump claimed in a speech in Detroit Monday, or rebuilding infrastructure, as Hillary Clinton argued in Warren, Michigan, on Thursday. These are palliatives.

The deeper problem facing America is how to provide meaningful work and good wages for the tens of millions of truck drivers, accountants, factory workers and office clerks whose jobs will disappear in coming years because of robots, driverless vehicles and "machine learning" systems.

The political debate needs to engage the taboo topic of guaranteeing economic security to families -- through a universal basic income, or a greatly expanded earned-income tax credit, or a 1930s-style plan for public-works employment. Ranting about bad trade deals won't begin to address the problem.   

The "automation bomb" could destroy 45 percent of the work activities currently performed in the United States, representing about $2 trillion in annual wages, according to a study last year by the consulting firm McKinsey & Co. We've only seen the beginning of this change, they warned. Currently, only 5 percent of occupations can be entirely automated, but 60 percent of occupations could soon see machines doing 30 percent or more of the work. 

We already saw something similar happen in the 20th century. Remember when time-saving home appliances were invented and sold, thereby saving women lots of work hours in the home? This arguably led to more women entering the workplace since they didn't have to spend as much time maintaining the home. In turn, this effectively doubled the work force, and halved the cost of labor for businesses. This has been one factor in the static wages we have seen for decades.

Don't expect robots to consume all the jobs overnight, but don't be surprised if most or all of the Millennial Generation loses their jobs to robots and other automation before they get a chance to retire. Basically, the political arguments we are having today will become moot in a few decades, and maybe sooner.

As for China, who needs cheap human labor when a robot does the job for one reasonable initial cost plus routine maintenance? By mid-century, China will only be an international political consideration, and maybe not even that. Will nationalism survive the beginning of the age of robotics?