Thursday, August 11, 2016

Why we need 4 political parties

As a libertarian, I am pleased to see Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson getting close to qualifying for the presidential debates this Fall. However, I also have a touch of ambivalence in this regard. I believe this country needs four reasonably strong political parties, not just three.

Depending on the poll you view, the United States is broken down fairly evenly between the various ideologies, with roughly 80% split between the Republicans and Democrats, 15% moderate/independents, and another 5% somewhere else. Your mileage may vary.

In the past, whenever one of our duopoly of political parties has nominated a bad candidate, the other one usually picks an acceptable one, so enough of the moderate/independents will have a choice. This is the first year both parties have chosen two prohibitively awful candidates: The loony Donald Trump and the criminal Hillary Clinton. Even reasonable people of the Right and Left are challenged to support these candidates, and many are even refusing. This is why Gary Johnson is breaking 10% in many presidential polls.

Sadly, the American people are lazy. They expect politics to come to them. Our schools don't teach them about investigating candidates (which is actually easier than ever, thanks to the internet). For many people, all they see of politics is what they get spoon-fed on the news. However, many of them do watch the presidential debates. And if Gary Johnson can reach 15% in the polls, he will be included, which will give many people an option.

Here is where I get ambivalent: While I would love to see Johnson in the debates, he will have to do a lot better than he did in the Libertarian debates (Austin Petersen owned him). Even if Johnson does well, will he be able to pull support from Hillary Clinton?

Looking at the polls now, Johnson will need to pull more from Hillary's support, since Trump is already cratering. From my perspective, Johnson plays better to disaffected Republicans than to disaffected Democrats (I hope I am wrong). If Johnson only pulls Trump supporters, but not enough of them, that just leaves the election for Hillary to win.

The Green Party's Jill Stein is more of a natural fit for Bernie Sanders' supporters, and hence a better foil for Hillary Clinton. This is why I believe we need four, not just three, strong political parties. If we are truly to get equal representation in both the presidential and lower level races, four parties is a must. We need two "third" parties to put pressure on the Republicrat/Democan duopoly.

This will provide real political debate by keeping all candidates honest about where they stand. No more "pivot to the middle" when the presidential nomination is achieved, or else you risk losing your right/left base to the "third" parties.

To achieve this, I believe a 5% support level is reasonable for inclusion in the presidential debates. That would include Gary Johnson easily, and Jill Stein has reached that level in some polls thus far.

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