Tuesday, March 29, 2016

The Hillary/Trump election isn't in the numbers

In looking over the numbers, I don't see each party's respective leader reaching the total they need to declare victory.

Starting with the Republicans, Donald "Joe Millionaire" Trump needs 1,237 delegates to declare victory. He currently has 739, with 839 remaining to be decided, meaning he needs 498 of the remaining 839, or over 59% of the remaining delegates. California stands huge, with 172 winner-take-all delegates at stake, but Trump is only ahead of Cruz by 1% in the latest California polls. Even if Cruz takes California, and wins the majority of states remaining, it is unlikely Cruz will have enough to claim victory either, since he only has 465 delegates now. My money is on the Republican nomination being up-for-grabs when they get to the convention, unless Trump can win California and pull roughly 49% of the remaining proportional states, which will be tough for him (he doesn't usually win 49% in states where he wins).

On the other hand, Democrat Hillary Goldman Clinton needs 670 delegates to win, which leaves her in the driver's seat to the convention. With 1,747 delegates remaining, Clinton can pull under 50% and still walk away winner. "Weekend at Bernie" Sanders will have a tougher time pushing Hillary for a brokered convention. My money is on Hillary winning the "D" nomination before the convention.

Expect a very interesting summer...

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