The Libertarian Establishment Problem

Every political party has an establishment problem. Parties are run by an establishment, which is made up of each party's "movers and shakers": Money people, successful politicians, and other people with connections.

When a party is having success, their "base" voters tend to give the establishment the benefit of the doubt. For example, Hillary Clinton (the establishment candidate) has managed to win over the Democratic Party's base, even though the Obama administration's success has been dubious, at best. (Hence the odd success but ultimate failure of Bernie Sanders.)

On the other hand, the Republicans had bought into their establishment's presidential picks in the last two elections, and got soundly beaten by one of the worst candidates in history (Obama). When your establishment can't pick someone to beat a candidate with Obama's glaring weaknesses, eventually there will be a price to pay. That price is Donald Trump.

On the third hand, even the Libertarian Party has it's establishment problem. Their establishment is represented by Gary Johnson, the former Republican governor of New Mexico and Libertarian candidate for president in 2012, who managed to get a Libertarian record of...wait for it...1% OF THE VOTE!

From all accounts, it sounds like Johnson is the leading candidate going into this weekend's Libertarian Party convention in Orlando, Florida. While I generally agree with Johnson's ideology, he suffers from the same problem Mitt Romney had in 2012: Both were their party's "establishment" candidate, and neither had what it takes to win.

Here is how to win an election, and why Gary Johnson can't win:

1. First, the candidate has to take up positions that clearly oppose the other candidate(s). Nuanced positions will not fly. Nuance is what killed John Kerry in 2004 and Mitt Romney in 2012. John McCain in 2008 never even bothered with nuance, as he never had a position he wouldn't change. If there is no real difference between you and the opponent(s), then why would we vote for you? This is especially important for a Libertarian candidate, who is starting from behind at the very beginning of the race. We will see if Johnson can pull this off, but when he was challenged by Austin Petersen in the debates, Johnson started to get that "Mike Wallace interviewee" look on his face.

2. Second, the candidate needs to be able to articulate why his opposing positions are superior. This can be done in multiple ways, from being able to sell the voters on your views, or just showing the voters that your opponent's ideas won't work, or even just showing the voters your opponent is incapable of what they are promising. Tossing out catchphrases as responses all the time is a very bad sign, and voters do catch onto this. This might have hurt Obama in the last two elections, except his opponents couldn't get past stage one. For this one, I am also reminded of Walter Mondale and Mike Dukakis. Both of them wanted to raise taxes, but could never make a clear argument as to why it was needed. They were demolished in their respective elections.

This is where Gary Johnson's biggest failing is. Johnson is like a grocery store cashier: If you weren't already in his line, he would never sell you a thing.

But he is comfortable, and polls of Libertarians show they favor him over other Libertarian candidates. This is a mistake. This is where we need a Jedi to come along, wave his hand and tell Libertarians, "This is not the candidate you are looking for..."

The Libertarian establishment, which consists of Libertarians going back God knows how far, needs to quit looking for the Republican Party rejects like Bob Barr and Gary Johnson, and quit looking for "safe" picks like the Republicans are fond of doing.

They need to pick someone like Austin Petersen for a change. Petersen is articulate, yet knows how to spar verbally. He is the kind of guy who can walk onto a debate stage with Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, and present the Libertarian case eloquently (enough to beat Hillary who will try to "out-wonk" him) yet with enough fervor (enough to match up with Trump in conviction) to walk away the victor.

Earlier today, I posted a quote from Babe Ruth:

"I swing big, with everything I've got. I hit big or I miss big. I like to live as big as I can."

This is what the Libertarians HAVE to do. We don't need a singles hitter (read 1%) like Johnson. We need someone who can hit big. We need Austin Petersen.