No Brexit

There has been a lot of news stories about the June 23rd referendum in Britain over whether they should exit the European Union (otherwise known as the "Brexit"). While I believe they should, I am fairly certain they won't.

Odds are currently at 37% for a Brexit, which I would feel safe betting against it happening. On top of that: It's the economy, stupid, and Britain isn't desperate enough yet.

While I and most people believe the EU is on the wrong path economically, nobody will leave it until it gets really bad. We are talking Weimar Republic-level economic nightmare. Until then, people will stick with what they have, even as they watch it deteriorate.

Another aspect which will keep Britain in the EU: Scotland. If Britain leaves the EU, Scotland has threatened to leave Britain. That creates a bit of a wicked googly for them, wouldn't you say?

But I will throw you a prediction: When Britain can leave the EU without worrying about Scotland, they will. When things are so bad in the EU that even Scotland wants out, Britain will leave without hesitation. There may not even be a referendum on it.